Ranked Choice Voting heading for its biggest year ever

This November, RCV will be on the ballot in four states -- Oregon, Idaho, Nevada and Colorado -- as well as the nation’s capital

[Dear DemocracySOS readers. I hope you are enjoying our reporting and analysis about democracy, representation and political reform. We strive to offer unique content unlike anything else on the Net. You can help support our work by tossing a few dimes into the DSOS hat. A subscription for a mere $5 a month — the price of a coffee or pizza slice — helps keep the doors open. Thanks, and now back to our regular programming]

The Spirit of 2024 may soon manifest as “the best of times and the worst of times.” This election season could end up being the year that Donald Trump returns to the Oval Office and rules with a vengeful wrath, further eroding America’s democratic institutions and our standing in the world.

Or, 2024 could end up being the breakout year for Ranked Choice Voting, the most popular political reform in the US. It is on the cusp of becoming a new norm for representative democracy in the US. Already RCV has won 27 city and four statewide ballot measures in a row.

RCV has become so popular because of the miracle of “ranked ballots.” Ranked ballots liberate voters to cast their votes for their favorite candidates, knowing that if your top choice can’t win then your “runoff vote” will count for your second choice, then your third choice, and so on. Voters can enjoy unprecedented “sincerity” in their choosing of candidates, instead of settling for the “lesser of two evils” or fearing that you might waste your vote on a candidate with no chance of winning.

And candidates can benefit too, because they can run hard and compete without fear of playing “spoiler” or splitting the vote among like-minded candidates. RCV discourages negative campaigning because candidates may need rankings from other candidates’ supporters to win. So a candidate’s best strategy is to avoid tearing down voters’ favorite candidates and build coalitions as part of your winning strategy.

Ranked Choice Voting is establishing an impressive track record across the country because it delivers better choices, better campaigns, and better governance. It has been used in hundreds of elections by over 16 million voters in over 50 cities, counties and states, at local, state and federal levels. Six Southern states – Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina – use ranked choice ballots for their military and overseas voters so they can participate in their states’ delayed two-round runoffs, by having them rank their runoff choices at the same time as their first choice.

Such is the magic of ranked ballots. And now RCV is poised for its biggest year ever. Across the nation, RCV will be on the ballot in four states (Oregon, Idaho, Nevada and Colorado) as well as the nation’s capital, Washington DC. And there are two more states, Arizona and Montana, where voters are deciding on ballot measures that would institute a majority victory threshold, with RCV or a two-round runoff as potential majoritarian methods that will be decided at a later date.

The movement for better democracy has worked many years to arrive at this juncture. But it’s not all cheerful news. In Alaska, which has used RCV for almost two election cycles, MAGA Republicans have paid for signatures on a ballot measure to repeal RCV there because they are upset that RCV has elected more moderate candidates, both Republicans and Democrats, who have formed a bipartisan governing coalition in the Alaskan state government. And in Missouri they will vote on a ballot measure from MAGA Republicans to ban RCV before it can ever be adopted.

Here is a rundown of the different RCV campaigns in the various states and Washington DC. I am including information for how to contact the campaigns in case any DemocracySOS readers want to support any of them with a donation, or even volunteering from afar. This is the most crucial and important time in the 30 year plus history of the RCV movement in the United States. It’s time to roll up our sleeves and mobilize!

Oregon. The Oregon effort is very exciting. Measure 117 was put on the ballot by the Democratic-dominated state legislature. It voted on the final day of the legislative session in June 2023 to pass House Bill 2004, which placed this proposal to use ranked choice voting for federal and statewide races (including president and governor) on the November 2024 ballot. This is the first time in modern US history that a state legislature has allowed voters to decide whether to use an alternative electoral method for some of its state and federal elections. Oftentimes political reformers don’t have much support among the electeds, and so we use the voter initiative process to circumvent the politicians and ask the voters directly to decide on reform.

But in Oregon, the Democratic majority in the state house, led by its Speaker, Dan Rayfield, voted to put RCV on the ballot (DemocracySOS conducted an insightful interview with attorney Blair Bobier, Oregon’s longtime leading advocate for RCV, that illuminates how this remarkable event came to pass). Measure 117 would retain the closed primary system in which only each party’s voters are allowed to participate in that party’s primary to nominate its candidates. Here is a link to the Measure 117 campaign website, https://yeson117.com/.

Nevada. Voters in Nevada will get to vote this November on Question 3, a statewide ballot measure for RCV that is combined with a Top 5 open primary. Voters already approved the original Question 3 in November 2022, but the political class, both Democrats and Republicans, have not made reform easy, requiring that reformers have to win twice. Double jeopardy. And unlike in Oregon, where the Democratic Party leadership led the effort to put RCV on the ballot, in the Silver State both Democratic and Republican parties have the knives out for it.

If Question 3, passes, all candidates from any party would run on a single primary ballot and the top five vote-getters would advance to the general election, which then would be decided by RCV. Driving support for reform is that Nevada is one of a number of states that has seen a sharp increase in the number of registered voters who are independent of the two major parties – about 37% are registered as either nonpartisan or with a minor party, which combined is greater than either registered Democrats (33%) or Republicans (30%).

Among voters 18 to 34 years old, Non-Partisan is the largest voting segment, and when combined with minor party registration is above 50 percent. Currently the two major parties use closed primaries, meaning that a third to a half of voters cannot participate in the parties’ primaries, which is when most elections are decided. Like with Alaska’s Top 4/RCV combo, which was designed to empower the 60% of Alaska voters who are registered as some category of “independent,” this political exclusion of a growing cohort of independent Nevada voters is compelling voters to embrace this reform (for more on the details regarding Nevada, see this previous DemocracySOS article).

Forcing Nevadans to vote twice is the ultimate cynical power flex by the two major party duopoly. That’s a good reason to send a message to the duopoly by supporting Question 3 with a donation or your activism. Here is a link to the website.  

Colorado.  Like Nevada and Alaska, nearly half (47%) of Colorado’s active voters are registered as “unaffiliated,” and so their ability to participate in major party primaries – when most election are decided – is restricted. RCV proponents, led by wealthy former DaVita CEO Kent Thiry, have gathered enough signatures to place Proposition 131 on the ballot, which like Alaska will create a single primary for all parties, with the top four finishers going on to a November runoff decided by RCV. Prop 131 is sweeping, applying to races for the US Senate, US House of Representatives, governor, attorney general, state legislature, secretary of state, treasurer, Colorado University board of regents and state board of education. Thiry has won five previous ballot measures, including a measure that created independent legislative and congressional redistricting commissions.

Like in Nevada, Thiry’s proposed measure is drawing bipartisan opposition, including from both Democratic and Republican parties, and even from MAGA gun-toting Rep. Lauren Boebert. It also has drawn opposition from the progressive Working Families Party which apparently views RCV as a threat to their efforts to get fusion voting in Colorado. But Democratic governor Jared Polis has commented favorably on RCV, which is used in Boulder and several Colorado cities. The Rocky Mountains state is an important purple state in the national lineup, so here’s a link to support the Prop 131 campaign.

Idaho. In the Gem State, Proposition 1 is also a Top Four-RCV combo ballot measure. While it’s a heavily conservative state, like in Alaska many of those conservatives are not registered as Republicans but as independents  – over a third (35%) of Idaho voters are registered as “unaffiliated.” Unaffiliated voters are by far the second-largest “political party” in Idaho, nearly three times more numerous than Democratic Party registration. Yet these voters are not allowed to participate in the GOP’s “closed primary” where virtually all elections are decided. A coalition of independents and moderate Republicans, including the groups Republicans for Open Primaries and Reclaim Idaho, used a lot of volunteer labor to collect enough signatures to qualify a voter initiative.

High profile GOP leaders are leading this effort, with former GOP Governor Butch Otter, as well as dozens of other past state lawmakers and officials endorsing the campaign. These leaders believe that a Top Four primary combined with RCV will help defeat more extreme MAGA Republican candidates who have successfully ousted more moderate GOP legislators in low turnout “plurality-wins-all” primaries (to find out more background about the battle royal between moderate and MAGA Republicans in Idaho, which led to Prop 1, see this earlier DemocracySOS article). This campaign, along with the Top 4-RCV repeal effort in Alaska, is an important battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party, and it will create a model for other conservative states. So everyone should support it however you can, here is a link: https://yesforopenprimaries.com/

Washington DC. This is an exciting campaign in our nation’s capital, where if successful federal leaders will be able to observe up close the wonders of ranked ballots and the merits of RCV. Independent voters – about 16% of the electorate – have long been shut out of the partisan primaries in DC. In this year’s elections in one city council district the winner of the Democratic primary, which had 10 candidates, garnered less than 24% of the vote. Spoiler candidates and split votes prevailed, and a candidate was able to win even though 76% of their constituents voted for other candidates.

Initiative 83 would follow a similar path as Alaska, Colorado, Idaho and Nevada by allowing independent voters to participate in the party primary of their choice, and using RCV to allow voters to rank up to five candidates. The Washington Post has endorsed RCV as a way to improve local elections, citing the reform’s success in other cities. But the local Democratic Party machine has fought this pro-democracy measure, showing that not all Democrats are really in favor of better democracy. This is an important campaign, here is a link to show your support.

The reform efforts for better representative democracy have been ongoing for over three decades, during which thousands of democracy advocates have rolled up our sleeves and done this work. At this critical juncture, I urge DemocracySOS readers to make sure that 2024 is a breakout year for Ranked Choice Voting.

By the first week in November, we will know whether the Spirit of 2024 is the year that representative democracy in the United States took a giant step forward toward a brighter future, or a troubling step backward toward authoritarianism.

The stakes couldn’t be higher.

Steven Hill  @StevenHill1776