The Failure of Plurality Elections

Throughout history, candidates have won critical elections with less than a popular majority, from the presidency to Congress to city halls, both in the US and abroad

[Note from the editor: This article was first published on the FairVote website]

For me, the most powerful value of ranked choice voting is the new incentives RCV creates for voters and candidates to engage with one another. Doing so ultimately brings citizens closer to the legislators who represent them.

But RCV also directly improves the fairness and legitimacy of outcomes and makes it harder for operatives who seek to game the system. When electing powerful leaders, elections should uphold “majority rule.” Winners with a popular majority are more representative, have clearer mandates and engage with more voters. This article highlights candidates who have won with less than a popular majority in critical elections, from city halls to Congress to the presidency, both in the US and around the world. Let’s review some examples of consequential non-majority wins in elections that did not use either ranked choice voting or effective runoffs.

Plurality winners in presidential elections

Let’s start with presidential elections. Since 1824, when John Quincy Adams won with only 29.8% of the popular vote, 19 Electoral College winners earned less than a majority. Low plurality “wins” in primaries also boosted potentially weak and unrepresentative nominees.

In 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by 51.3% to 46.8% – but won three states narrowly with less than 50% in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. It’s unlikely that every backer of Libertarian Jo Jorgensen would have preferred Trump to Biden, but if so, Trump would have been elected president.

In the 2020 Democratic primaries, Joe Biden stumbled in Iowa (4th place, 14.9%), New Hampshire (5th, place 8.4%) and Nevada (17.6%). But after a 48.6% win in South Carolina, several candidates withdrew and Biden’s sudden momentum led to Super Tuesday wins and the nomination.

In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. He lost the popular vote by 48% to 46%, but won Arizona (48.1%), Florida (48.6%), Michigan (47.3%), Pennsylvania (48.2%) and Wisconsin (47.2%). Voters for Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein in an instant runoff would have decided the election.

In the 2016 GOP Iowa caucuses, Ted Cruz earned 28% compared to Trump’s 24% and the rest of the field’s 48%. Simulations show that Cruz would have won a big landslide in a head-to-head race with Trump, greatly changing the narrative.

In 2012, Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination before losing the White House in November to Barack Obama. 24 of the first 30 GOP state primaries and caucuses were won with less than 50%, including Senator Rick Santorum winning Iowa with only 25%.

In 2008, Obama won the Democratic nomination. He won Iowa with 38% over Edwards (31%) and Clinton (30%). Clinton then won New Hampshire with 39%. Edwards’ withdrawal turned it into a head-to-head contest not requiring “instant runoffs” to determine majority winners.

In 2008, John McCain won the Republican nomination before losing to Obama. He got only 13% in Iowa, but won New Hampshire with 38%, then carried South Carolina with 33% and Florida with 36%. That gave him momentum over Romney in 22 Super Tuesday primaries that McCain mostly won with less than 50%.

A fun fact about 2008: Both GOP nominee John McCain and Democratic nominee Barack Obama had boosted ranked choice voting – McCain with a recorded message in Alaska in 2002 and Obama by sponsoring a pro-RCV bill in Illinois.

In 2004, Senator John Kerry from Massachusetts won the Democratic nomination before losing to President George W. Bush in November. He was an upset winner in the Iowa caucuses with 37%, then won his neighboring state of New Hampshire with 38%. That momentum was enough to sweep him to the nomination.

In 2000, Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote by 48.4% to 47.9%, but Bush won the Electoral College. Gore would have won if he had reversed defeats in either Florida (537 votes) or New Hampshire (7,211 votes). Ralph Nader may have spoiled the race with his votes earned in Florida (97,488) and New Hampshire (22,198).

Democrat Bill Clinton won presidential elections over independent Ross Perot and GOP nominees President George H.W. Bush (in 1992) and Senator Robert Dole (in 1996). Clinton won the 1992 race with 43% of the vote, and the 1996 race with 49%. In 1992, fully 49 out of 50 states were won with under 50%, including Clinton’s wins in four states like Montana with less than 40%.

14 other presidents won with less than 50% of the popular vote. 1844 offers a powerful example of a swing state split vote. Pro-slavery James Polk’s win over slavery critic Henry Clay depended on Polk’s 1% win in New York, where anti-slavery candidate James Birney spoiled the race with 3% of the popular vote.

Some argue Lincoln’s 39.7% win in 1860 shows plurality voting can be good. But he won majorities with over 50% in states comprising an Electoral College majority. He wasn’t even on the ballot in nine southern states – deepening pre-war polarization.

Turning to other elections in the U.S. and overseas 

Let’s turn to consequential international and non-presidential U.S. elections, presented chronologically. Some are momentous. The winners weren’t necessarily “wrong,” but many had disputable outcomes with plurality voting or in runoffs with highly fractured 1st round results.

Taiwan’s presidential election, January 2024: The nationalist ruling party won with 41% over 2 candidates seeking to reduce tensions with neighboring China. The legislature elected simultaneously at least benefited from a more representative 61-53 majority for the 2 opposition parties.

Pirna, Germany mayoral election, December 2023: The far-right populist Alternative for Germany party won a mayoral race for the 1st time. Its candidate won with 38.5% in a three-person runoff in which the two more traditional candidates together won 61.5%.

Memphis, Tennessee mayoral election, October 2023: The winner in a 17-candidate race earned only 27.6%. Unfortunately, the state legislature in 2022 blocked the city from implementing ranked choice voting, which Memphis voters had approved twice.

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh mayoral primaries, May 2023: Democratic primaries effectively chose new mayors in these Pennsylvania cities. Both were won with less than 40% of votes. A poll had found that most Philadelphia voters back ranked choice voting.

U.S. Senate and House primaries, 2022: 120 primaries were won with less than 50% of the vote, including three current House members who won with less than 29%. Republicans lost U.S. Senate races after controversial candidates won primaries with low pluralities in Arizona (40%), New Hampshire (37%), and Pennsylvania (32%).

Peru presidential election, 2021: Most runoffs mean winners have over 50% of the vote, but runoffs can still undercut majority rule. Peru’s 1st round advanced only far-left Castillo (18.9%) and far-right Fujimori (13.4%). Castillo won the runoff, but has since been removed from office.

New York City district attorney primary, 2021: NYC uses ranked choice voting for city primaries, contributing to diverse winners earning more votes. But district attorneys need only a plurality, and Alvin Bragg won Manhattan’s Democratic district attorney primary by just 34% to 31%.

Florida state senate election, 2020: Plurality voting helped partisan political operatives to promote spoiler candidates. In Senate District 37, a phantom candidate with the incumbent’s name ran and won over 6,000 votes, enabling the GOP challenger to win by 34 votes. It led to criminal convictions.

Fall River, Massachusetts recall election, 2019: Mayor Jasiel Correia was recalled by a landslide, 61% to 39%. But his 35% of votes was enough to win the plurality election to replace himself. Later, he lost his re-election bid and is now incarcerated for crimes in office.

Washington State Treasurer election, 2016: Top-two primaries produce majority winners, but not always representative choices. In the all-voter primary, three Democrats split 52% of the vote, enabling the two Republicans to advance and then win the seat in November.

Montana U.S. Senate election, 2012: Democrats won 10 U.S. Senate seats with less than 50% from 1998 to 2016. In 2012, Sen. Jon Tester (D) won re-election by just 0.3%. A Libertarian had 6.6%, boosted by an ad buy from Tester-aligned operatives seeking to split GOP vote.

Missouri U.S. Senate primary, 2012: Sen. McCaskill (D) boasted about her operatives using plurality voting to help controversial GOP Rep. Todd Akin win the GOP primary with 36%. She won easily in November, although lost to a stronger Republican in 2018.

Egyptian presidential election, 2012: Egypt’s “Arab Spring” ended with an effective dictatorship. 2012 was a turning point. The Muslim Brotherhood’s Morsi eventually won the presidential election, but the two polarizing runoff candidates together won only 48% in the 1st round.

Maine gubernatorial election, 2010: After the two previous Maine governors also won with less than 40%, Paul LePage won the GOP gubernatorial primary with 38% and the general election with 37%. He was reelected with 48% in 2014. His plurality victories may have contributed to voters approving ranked choice voting in 2016.

New York U.S. Senate elections: Some argue fusion voting avoids spoilers, but in 1970, Buckley won with 39% over two major party nominees. In 1980, D’Amato won with 45%, also due to split votes.

Ranked choice voting upholds majority rule

Ranked choice voting is a proven reform used in Alaska and Maine to elect the president and Congress. It’s used to elect Ireland’s president, including when Mary Robinson won a comeback victory in 1990 to become the country’s first woman president.

Ranked choice voting can be a proportional system, as it will be used this year in Portland (OR) for city council, and as it has been proposed in Congress with the Fair Representation Act.

Ranked choice voting is used by all voters in at least one election in Australia, Ireland, Malta, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, and Scotland, and in 50 cities in the U.S. As we build a more perfect union, let’s look for better ways to elect majorities and the minorities who together form those majorities.

Rob Richie, FairVote Senior Advisor @Rob_Richie